Chile and Global Warming

In many ways, Chile will be one of the least effected country in the World. Obviously, Chile will see a lot of changes, but many experts are predicating that the geography of Chile will protect it from many of the more catastrophic changes expected around the World as Global Warming takes hold. In South America, countries like Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil are likely to take more of beating from stronger El Niño and La Niña ocean current temperature swings. Central America will like wise take stronger beatings from Hurricanes and tropical storms.

In Chile, the Andes mountains and the long coast will be the two major factors mitigating the damage of Global warming on Chile. One of the major reasons is that Chile already has such an extreme variations in climate, with thousands of micro-climates spread across the country, that changes will tend to be isolated from region to region. From certain perspectives, Southern Chile, and especially the Patagonia regions, may even benefit from climate changes. The extreme variations in temperatures and rain fall that traditionally occur throughout the year in Patagonia are becoming predictably more mild.

In Chile overall, the long coast generates precipitation that will insure that much of Chile will stay sufficiently wet. In fact, there is the possibility that many of the areas where rain is problematic will become drier. Across the country, the precipitation is expected to shift steadily south. The dessert of Northern Chile will move towards the Central region of Chile. Beach resorts around the Vina del Mar area will become more like the Mediterranean coast with warmer year around temperature. The wine countries and valleys in the central region of Chile will expand south in to the VIII and IX regions of Chile. Many of the major vineyards in Chile have already started expansion south in to this new wine country of Chile.

Southern Chile and the Patagonia are a little more difficult to predict. The south of Chile overall will see less rain and snow fall; however, considering that in many parts of the south rain typically last for months on end such a shift may not be such a bad thing in terms of the economics and agriculture.

What must be taken in to consideration is the effect on the micro climates that already exist across southern Chile and Patagonia. The Andes mountains have strange effect on weather patterns. For example, currently in the Chilean Patagonia it is not unusual to be in a completely green temperate rain forest, and then cross in to the next valley and find it more of a short grass plane or semiarid valley.

So, on one hand the effects on each micro climate in southern Chile will be fairly unpredictable, on the other hand the diversity that Chile already enjoys will allow Chile to hedge its bets against the effects of wild swings in Global warming. Just on the other side of the Andes, the Argentina Pampas are predicated to be transformed in to a more dessert like environment. The Argentina Pampas are already fairly aired and hot. When the Pampas change, they will change over thousands of square kilometers with nothing by way of geography to really stop it until the Atlantic ocean.

Then there is the problem of the rising oceans and Chile. The oceans will likely save Chile by providing plenty of moisture and a snow fall for sources of fresh water; however, a rise in global sea levels will also take its toll on many of Chile's coastal communities.

The good thing is that many of Chile's towns and cities along the coast will be able to withstand and adapt with minimal impact. Throughout Chile, most communities are already perched on hillsides with dramatic rises from the lowest point to the highest point within the city limits. Valparaiso and Puerto Montt would be two such examples in Chile.

Some of the thousands of Islands along the coast may disappear completely, especially in the Patagonia region; however, you must remember that Chile's total population is only 15,000,000 people and less than a third reside within 20 km of the ocean. Chile is not Bangladesh. Population shifts away from effected areas are relatively easy for Chile to implement, and most population shifts will likely happen very naturally as the Global Warming impact is felt in South America.

Then there are the glaciers in Southern Chile. Glaciers are melting in southern Chile now. There is likely not a single glacier, with perhaps the exception of a few isolated mountain passes, that have not seen a reduction in the size from the effects of Global Warming already. It is rather unnerving to walk through a valley in the Chilean Patagonia and suddenly hear the distant roar of a piece of glacier crashing down a mountain side. This has always been part of the ambiance of Patagonia spring in Chile, but the warnings of the impact of Global Warming make you stop and think about just how much bigger that falling piece of ice has grown in recent years.

Neil Glasser, of the University of Gales determine that the Patagonia Ice Camps around San Rafael have retreated over 10 Kilometers since around 1901. The most dramatic retreat has occurred since 1975 and is accelerating.

Chile most likely can not escape big changes as Global Warming progresses, but it will be much better situated than many countries around the World and especially countries in Latin America. The impact to humans in Chile should be relatively small. Chile has good local and federal natural disaster planning, and a relatively small population to provide services for. The impact on biodiversity in Chile is still not clear.

The real question mark for Chile will be how the secondary effects of Global Warming on the rest of the World will impact Chile in regards to such things as the economy, immigration, agricultural exports, energy supplies, and so on. Essentially those things that Chile has even far less control over than perhaps the weather.

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Chile and Global Warming

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